A6s CO on T95r: The Turn Stab Opportunity

Hero
A♠6♠
Position
CO vs SB
Pot
Single-Raised Pot
Flop
T♠ 5♥ 9♦

We missed a high-frequency semi-bluff on a turn card that favors our range, but checking back the river with our improved pair was correct.

Flop Analysis

Checking back is standard here. While we have a range advantage, our specific hand lacks enough strength to value bet and functions well as a check-back to realize its backdoor spade equity.

Turn Analysis

Betting is preferred here. The Jack connects well with our range and we have the Ace of spades blocker to some of the Small Blind's continuing range. **Ranges:** We have a significant range advantage (58% vs 42%). The opponent's range is capped after checking twice, while we still have all the straights (KQ, 87s) and top pairs. **Blockers:** Holding the Ace of spades is useful; it blocks some of the Ace-high floats the opponent might have and makes it harder for them to have hands like AJ or AT. --- > **Takeaway:** When the turn completes multiple draws and favors your preflop range, use your air with good blockers to barrel and fold out the opponent's marginal holdings.

Note: Checking back the turn is a missed opportunity to pressure the opponent's capped range on a card that heavily favors our range.

River Analysis

The 6h gives us a pair, turning our hand into a bluff-catcher with decent showdown value. Since the opponent has checked three times, we can comfortably check back and expect to win a fair portion of the time against their missed draws and weaker high cards.

Key Concepts

  • 10.1
  • Hero Slight Advantage
  • IP
  • Wet Board
  • LEAN TOWARD CHECK