98s BU on KT7fd: Flush Mining at NL10
- Hero
- 8♦9♦
- Position
- BU vs MP
- Pot
- Single-Raised Pot
- Flop
- 7♦ K♠ T♦
We successfully navigated a multiway pot with a suited connector, flopping a monster draw and turning a flush to capture a full stack.
Flop Analysis
With a massive combo draw (flush draw + OESD), we have huge equity, but checking is often preferred in multiway pots to realize that equity for free against two uncapped ranges.
**Board:** This texture is dynamic. While we have 56% equity, the King-high board favors the UTG raiser's range (AK, KK, TT), making a check-back safer to avoid getting check-raised off our massive draw.
**Position:** Being last to act allows us to take the free card. If we bet and get raised by UTG, we are forced into a high-variance spot despite our high equity.
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> **Takeaway:** In multiway pots, even monster draws benefit from checking to ensure you see the turn and realize your equity.
Turn Analysis
The Ace of diamonds is a dream card, completing our flush and giving us a massive range advantage over MP's condensed calling range.
**Sizing:** We should lean toward a larger sizing or even an overbet here. MP's range is capped at one-pair or two-pair hands (like AT, KT) that will struggle to fold to pressure, and we want to build the pot before the river potentially kills the action.
**Ranges:** The Ad is a 'scare card' for many, but it actually hits our range harder than MP's. We have all the suited connectors that flatted preflop, while MP's range is more weighted toward middling pairs and weak Ax.
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> **Takeaway:** When the turn completes the nut draw for your range, use large sizing to maximize value from 'sticky' top-pair hands.
River Analysis
MP's river lead-jam is a highly polarized and unusual line. On an unpaired board, our flush is effectively the nuts against the vast majority of the NL10 population's range.
**Math:** We are getting roughly 1.7:1 on a call, needing about 37% equity. Given the board isn't paired, we only lose to higher flushes (JdXd, QdXd), which are rare given the Ad and Kd are already accounted for.
**Exploits:** At NL10, a 'donk-shove' on the river after calling two streets usually represents a missed straight draw (like QJ) trying to buy the pot, or a lower flush/straight (QJ) that doesn't know how to value bet. Folding here would be a massive theoretical and practical mistake.
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> **Takeaway:** On unpaired boards, do not fold flushes to river aggression; population bluffs and 'spazz' value bets make this a mandatory call.
Key Concepts
- 9.2
- Villain Slight Advantage
- IP
- Semi-Wet Board
- LEAN TOWARD CHECK