87s BB on T65r: Turned It, Now Commit

Hero
8♥7♥
Position
BB vs BU
Pot
Single-Raised Pot
Flop
T♦ 6♣ 5♠

Defend pre, check–call flop with our draw, then after turning the straight we’re pot‑committed and should always stack off versus the jam.

Flop Analysis

On Td6c5s rainbow at ~18 SPR, this texture is fairly dynamic and hits both ranges; out of position we should lean heavily on checking our whole range. With 8h7h we have strong drawing equity but only high card at the moment, so checking and letting BU stab fits both range strategy and hand strength. Leading here would overexpose a marginal part of our range and is unnecessary when our hand realizes equity very well by check‑calling.

Flop Analysis

Facing 2.75 into 5.5 we’re getting excellent immediate odds with a robust draw, and the baseline is to check–call and keep our range wider. Raising this combo sometimes is reasonable in theory as part of a straight‑draw/semi‑bluff mix, but the solver prefers mostly calling and, when it does raise, uses a larger, more polar sizing. The small raise size narrows BU toward stronger made hands and good draws while folding out a lot of the air we’re already ahead of, so we end up bloating the pot versus a stronger, more condensed calling range with a hand that was very profitably realizing by calling.

Turn Analysis

Turn 4d completes our straight; now we’re near the very top of our range in a pot that’s grown to 22BB with an SPR a bit over 4. After we raised flop and got called, BU’s range is largely Tx, overpairs, strong pairs plus draws, and some better/worse straights. With this hand class the model plays a mixed bet/check strategy, preferring large overbets when betting to punish those condensed, bluff‑catching ranges and to get maximum value from sets/two pair/overpairs and worse straights. Our 18.1BB bet is an in‑between size—fine conceptually as value, but it doesn’t pressure BU as hard as the bigger sizing and slightly under-realizes what is essentially a premium value hand here.

Turn Analysis

Once BU jams over our turn bet, the pot is 129.4BB and we need only about 26% equity to continue with 72.1BB behind. With a made straight we’re in the top tier of our range after flop raise–turn bet, and even though BU’s raising range is strong and contains some better straights, we still have plenty of equity versus all the sets, two pairs, overpairs and combo-draws that want to rip it in here. This spot is effectively a commitment point: with this price and this hand class we should never fold, and the correct response is to continue (which, given the stacks, means calling off and getting the rest in).

Key Concepts

  • Multi-Street Play
  • Neutral Range
  • OOP
  • Wet Board
  • LEAN TOWARD CHECK