The preflop and river are fine; the flop raise with TPTK on a dry K-high board is the real leak because it isolates us vs stronger value and folds out worse hands and bluffs.
Flop Analysis
Flop Kd 9c 2s, pot 20.5BB, BB c-bets 11BB and we have top pair top kicker with AhKh in position on a very dry K‑high board. BB still has the nut advantage (KK/AA/AK/99/22) as the preflop 3-bettor, while our range is more condensed. With TPTK here, the high-EV game plan is to mainly call: calling keeps in all the bluffs (AQ, JT, some lower pairs turned into bluffs) and the worse Kx that may barrel off, while our hand comfortably meets the pot-odds requirement and sits in the “upper-mid” of our range. When we raise to 33BB, we force BB to continue mostly with overpairs (AA), KQ/AK, and sets, while folding out exactly the hands we want to keep in—AQ, TT–JJ, some 9x. That polarizes villain’s continuing range against us and shrinks their bluff density, which is bad for a one-pair hand. On a static, rainbow K92, raising top pair is supposed to be rare and more the job of sets and some strong Kx at low frequency, not the bulk of TPTK.
Note: Raising flop with TPTK on a dry K‑high 3-bet pot board over-isolates us against stronger value and folds out worse hands and bluffs; calling is clearly higher EV.
Turn Analysis
After the flop raise gets called, the pot is 86.5BB and stacks are about 57BB behind on Kd 9c 2s 7h. SPR is ~0.66, so the pot is already huge relative to stacks. BB checks to us. Given our flop line, our range is now polarized: strong Kx/sets and some bluffs. With AhKh specifically, strategy is genuinely mixed—betting about half-pot jams our value and charges worse Kx and 9x, while checking controls the pot in a node where BB still has the overall nut advantage (AA, some slowplayed sets) and can trap. The solver mix here (roughly half bet, half check with equal EV) reflects that both lines are viable. Checking back is perfectly reasonable: we avoid getting check-jammed on by a range that may be quite strong after calling our flop raise, and we still realize our equity very well with TPTK at this SPR.
River Analysis
River Kd 9c 2s 7h 4d, pot 86.5BB, BB shoves 57BB and we’re getting about 2.5:1, needing ~28% equity. The runout is very safe: no flush or straight completes and our relative hand strength (top pair top kicker) hasn’t meaningfully changed. After we raise flop and check back turn with AhKh, we reach the river with one of our strongest one-pair hands; folding too much here would leave us under-defended against a reasonable bluffing region (missed AQ, some random overcards/underpairs that took a stab). The equilibrium solution calls with this combo a majority of the time and sometimes even re-jams as a thin value/bluff-catcher mix. In practice, versus most 100BB cash game pools that under-bluff big river bets in 3-bet pots, this may be a slightly uncomfortable but still necessary call near the top of our range.