AJs SB on TT6r: Triple Barrel Gone Wrong
- Hero
- A♠J♠
- Position
- SB vs MP
- Pot
- 3-Bet Pot
- Flop
- T♠ T♥ 6♣
Preflop and flop are fine, but once our bluff loses equity we should slow down; on the river we either shove or check, and after getting jammed on we just fold.
Flop Analysis
On Ts Th 6c we’re OOP in a 3-bet pot with just ace-high and a backdoor nut flush draw. This paired T-high board slightly favors MP’s range, and overall the strategy leans toward a lot of checking from us. AsJs is a nice bluffing candidate because we have two overcards plus backdoor spades, but when we do bet, it makes more sense to size up and stay polar (representing Tx/overpairs) rather than using a very small 3BB stab into 15BB. Small betting with air here doesn’t pressure MP’s 6x/underpairs much and risks building a pot with a hand that will often have to give up later.
Turn Analysis
Turn 2c on Ts Th 6c 2c slightly improves MP’s continuing range (they now pick up some club draws, and their pocket pairs are still very comfortable), while our exact hand has lost a lot of its flop equity: no spade turn, no pair, and now just naked ace-high with poor equity (we’re sitting around the high-teens versus MP’s turn-calling range). Range-wise, this node wants a decent amount of checking, and our value-heavy continuation range (Tx, overpairs, maybe some 6x) is what should be betting for protection. Using AsJs as a 40% pot barrel here is thin: worse hands fold a lot, better hands call, and there aren’t many clean rivers where a triple will suddenly get folds. Checking keeps our overall range balanced and allows us to realize whatever equity ace-high retains while avoiding inflating the pot with a hand that doesn’t interact well with MP’s continuing range.
River Analysis
River 5h on Ts Th 6c 2c 5h keeps the board paired, misses our spades, and introduces some extra straights in MP’s range (like 34s) while their 6x and pocket pairs remain strong bluff-catchers. After betting flop and turn and getting called twice, our perceived range is already value-heavy; if we decide to bluff this river with AsJs at an SPR ~2.2, the coherent line is to jam, not to use a small 16BB bet into 37BB. The small sizing leaves room for MP to shove a very value-dense range (Tx, strong overpairs, some boats and straights) and puts us in a miserable spot with a hand that basically never wins at showdown. Strategically this node wants a lot of checking with air, plus some big polar bets with our strongest value and best bluff candidates—AsJs is more often a give-up here once called twice.
River Analysis
After betting 16BB into 37BB and facing an all-in raise for our remaining 66.5BB, the pot is 135BB and we’re getting about 3:1, needing roughly 25% equity to call. Our actual equity with AsJs here versus a realistic shove range is near zero: we still just have ace-high, straight draws are possible and we don’t block them, and there is no completed flush. More importantly, our blockers are bad for calling—holding As removes one of MP’s natural missed spade bluff combos, so their raising range is even more skewed toward full houses, Tx, strong overpairs, and some straights. In a GTO framework this is a very clear bet-fold: once we get jammed on, our specific combo is at the bottom of our range and simply cannot defend at anywhere near the required frequency.
Key Concepts
- 6.2
- Villain Slight Advantage
- OOP
- Dry Board
- LEAN TOWARD CHECK