AKs CO on K92r: Top Pair, Missed Jam
- Hero
- A♥K♥
- Position
- CO vs BB
- Pot
- 3-Bet Pot
- Flop
- K♠ 9♦ 2♣
Preflop and flop are fine, but with SPR ~0.36 on the turn we should just shove for value instead of checking and facing a nasty river spot.
Flop Analysis
Flop Ks 9d 2c, pot ~36.5bb, SPR ~2: BB c-bets 16bb and we hold top pair/top kicker with backdoor nut hearts. Solver strategy in 3‑bet pots is mostly to call here with AK, but raising some frequency is fine, especially with SPR already low and BB using a biggish size. When we raise to 48bb we’re essentially committing versus BB’s value range (AA, KK, some KQ/AK, maybe QQ/JJ) and their bluffs (AQ, some QJ/T8s, etc.). The raise is aggressive but coherent: we get value from worse Kx and JJ–QQ and deny equity from AQ-type hands that have solid overcard equity.
Turn Analysis
Turn 7s, pot 116.5bb with ~42bb behind gives an SPR of ~0.36. Once BB calls our flop raise and then checks, ranges are fairly narrowed: BB still has KK/99/22/AA/AK/KQ/QQ/JJ and some draws; we are heavily weighted to strong Kx and overpairs in BB’s eyes. With this tiny SPR, we should almost always shove our AK here—checking is a big tempo leak. Jamming now gets called by worse value (KQ, sometimes KJ, QQ/JJ) and charges any gutters or backdoor‑turned draws, plus it prevents river realization and tough decisions on many runouts. By checking back we give BB a free card, cap our own range, and invite exactly the kind of polar river bet we later face.
Note: With SPR ~0.36 and top/top after raising flop, we should shove turn for value; checking back is giving up EV and letting villain realize equity and bluff us later.
River Analysis
River 4d bricks most obvious draws; board is Ks 9d 2c 7s 4d. Pot is 158.5bb, BB jams 42bb and we’re getting ~3.8:1 (need ~21% equity). After our flop raise and turn check, our line looks capped to exactly what we have—one‑pair Kx and some slowplayed monsters—so BB’s shove is a polar value/bluff mix. Value is AA, some sets, maybe KQ; bluffs are missed AQ, QJ, T8s, random floats. Against a reasonably balanced or even mildly under‑bluffing pool, AK should comfortably clear the 21% equity threshold, making the call standard given the price, even though it feels gross because we lose to all better made hands.