On the turn, once we hit top pair/top kicker, we should either jam or use a big sizing; facing the shove, we’re getting a great price and must call off.
Flop comes 2d 8c 9c, a very connected board that favors MP’s opening range. We’ve got A‑high with a backdoor diamond draw, so checking back is the preferred line; if we do bet, a larger ~50% pot size is better than the small 6.2BB stab we chose.
Turn As is a huge card for us—top pair/top kicker, ahead of a lot of Ax and worse pairs, while MP still has 9x, 8x, and some strong Ax. With SPR ~2.3, this is a hand we want to get stacks in with; jamming or using a big ~50% pot bet is ideal. The 18.5BB sizing is a bit on the small side but still a solid value/protection bet.
After we bet 18.5BB, MP rips 66.8BB into a pot of 139.7BB. We’re getting about 3.1:1 and need roughly 24.5% equity; with top pair/top kicker, we’re crushing that requirement, so calling off is mandatory.