AKs CO on K92r: AKs: Raise, Then Manage SPR

Hero
A♥K♥
Position
CO vs BB
Pot
3-Bet Pot
Flop
K♦ 9♣ 2♠

Open AKs, mostly 4-bet vs BB’s 3-bet, then play postflop with a mix of calls and raises, and comfortably call the river shove with top pair.

Flop Analysis

Flop Kd9c2s, we have top pair top kicker on a dry board with SPR ~2.8. Facing a small c-bet, calling is preferred, with some large raise mixing. Solver likes calling around 95% and raising only a small amount, so the flop raise is a bit too big.

Note: Raising the flop is a bit too ambitious; solver prefers mostly calling with top pair top kicker on this dry texture, with only a small amount of large raises.

Turn Analysis

Turn 7h, SPR ≈1, BB checks; with top pair and no draw, checking back is fine and keeps the pot manageable. Solver has a close mix between betting and checking here, so checking is a reasonable, low-variance option.

River Analysis

River 4d, BB shoves 64bb into ~133.5bb, giving us about 2.1:1 and needing ~32% equity. AK is still ahead of a lot of bluffs and worse pairs, so calling is standard.

Key Concepts

  • Protection Priority
  • Villain Slight Advantage
  • IP
  • Dry Board
  • 3.7:1 NEED:21.3%