AKs CO on K92r: AKs: Raise, Then Commit

Hero
A♥K♥
Position
CO vs BB
Pot
3-Bet Pot
Flop
K♦ 9♣ 2♠

Open AKs, 4-bet vs BB’s 3-bet, and once we flop top pair on K-high we should mostly call the flop, then commit on the turn and river with the pot odds we’re getting.

Flop Analysis

Flop Kd9c2s, we flop top pair top kicker on a very dry board. Facing a small c-bet, solver mostly prefers calling with AK here, with some small/mid raise mixing. Raising to 30bb is a bit too big and polarizes us unnecessarily.

Note: Flop raise is too large and polarizing; solver prefers mostly calling with AK here, with some small/mid raise mixing.

Turn Analysis

Turn 7h, SPR is now about 0.7 and we’re effectively committed. Solver slightly prefers checking here with AK, but a small/mid bet is also reasonable. Checking keeps our range protected and avoids overplaying our hand when stacks are shallow.

River Analysis

River 4c, pot ≈181.5bb and we’re left with ~10bb; BB jams 60bb, giving us ~3.4:1 and needing ~23% equity. Solver is split between call and fold, but given the pot odds and the fact that AK blocks some of BB’s strongest value (AK/AK), calling is reasonable.

Key Concepts

  • Protection Priority
  • Villain Slight Advantage
  • IP
  • Dry Board
  • 3.1:1 NEED:24.1%