T3s SB on J44fd: Overplaying Missed Flush
- Hero
- T♣3♣
- Position
- SB vs BB
- Pot
- Single-Raised Pot
- Flop
- 4♥ J♥ 4♣
T3s is a weak SB open, and on the river we should mostly fold or bluff-jam our missed flush draw rather than value-jamming it.
Flop Analysis
Flop J44hh, BB donks 1BB into 8.5BB and we have a backdoor flush draw plus a club blocker. Solver mostly folds this combo, but mixing in some small raises is reasonable as a bluff. The 2BB raise is a bit small; if we choose to bluff, a larger size (around 8–9BB) works better.
Note: Flop raise with T3cc is slightly too optimistic; solver mostly folds this combo, and if we bluff, a larger size is preferred.
Turn Analysis
Turn 8c brings the third club and completes our flush; facing a 5.7BB bet into 18.2BB, we’re getting ~3.2:1 and need ~24% equity. Calling with a strong draw is standard. Solver prefers calling here, with some overbet raises mixed in; our medium raise is a bit too big and polarizes us unnecessarily.
Note: Turn raise is too big; solver prefers calling with this combo, with some overbet raises mixed in.
River Analysis
River Kh, SPR ~1, BB leads 10 into 50.5BB; we have a missed flush draw with T3cc, which blocks some missed flushes and doesn’t block strong value. Solver leans toward folding this combo, with some all-in bluffing, but not as a value jam. Shoving here is overplaying a bluff candidate and risks getting called by flushes and strong value.
Note: River shove with a missed flush draw is overplayed; solver mostly folds this combo, with some all-in bluffing, and it doesn’t function well as a value jam.
Key Concepts
- 6.7
- Villain Slight Advantage
- IP
- Semi-Wet Board
- Qc3c,QcTc