AKs CO on K92r: AKs: Raise, Then Chill

Hero
A♥K♥
Position
CO vs BB
Pot
3-Bet Pot
Flop
K♠ 9♦ 2♣

AKs should mostly 4-bet pre, then mix between calling and raising on K-high flops; once we get to the river facing a tiny donk, we should always continue.

Flop Analysis

Flop K92 rainbow: we have top pair with a strong kicker. BB’s 7.5BB c-bet into 32BB is small, so we’re getting about 4.3:1 and need only ~19% equity. Solver prefers calling here with AKs, with some large raise mixed in. Raising to 22.5BB is a bit too big and polarizes our range; a smaller raise or a call is higher EV.

Note: Flop raise is too big and polarizing; solver prefers a call with some large raise mixed in.

Turn Analysis

Turn 7h is a brick; after BB checks, we can either bet for value or check back. Solver leans toward checking with AKs here, but a small value bet is reasonable. Checking keeps our range protected and avoids overplaying our hand on a card that doesn’t change much.

River Analysis

River 4d is a total brick; BB’s 1BB donk into ~78BB is a very small stab. With AKs we’re never folding here—calling is mandatory and jamming is also a reasonable option. Solver shows a mix of call and shove, but given the tiny sizing we should always continue.

Key Concepts

  • Protection Priority
  • Villain Strong Advantage
  • IP
  • Dry Board
  • 4.3:1 NEED:19%