KK UTG on QT2fd: KK: Overplaying The River

Hero
K♠K♥
Position
UTG vs BU
Pot
Single-Raised Pot
Flop
T♥ 2♥ Q♣

Open KK, c-bet flop, barrel turn, then check river and fold to the shove—calling trips with a K blocker is a bit too loose.

Flop Analysis

On Qc Th 2h we have an overpair with a backdoor flush draw. Solver prefers a small c-bet or checking here; our 4.1BB into 5.5BB (about 75% pot) is a bit on the large side for this semi-wet texture and sizing.

Note: Flop c-bet sizing is slightly too big for this texture; solver prefers a small c-bet or check.

Turn Analysis

The Js is a very connected card that brings in straights and improves many of BU’s holdings. With SPR ~1.6, we’re effectively committed. Solver leans toward checking or using a small bet; our 9.6BB into 13.7BB (about 70% pot) is fine but slightly oversized.

Note: Turn sizing is a bit big; solver prefers a small bet or check with this combo.

River Analysis

River Kc gives us trips and we check with SPR ≈0.4. Checking here is standard—our hand is strong enough to induce a bluff from worse hands and we don’t want to block BU’s natural bluff candidates.

River Analysis

Facing a shove for 12.9BB into 32.9BB, we’re getting about 4.5:1 and need ~18% equity. Solver prefers folding this combo (blocks K-high straights) and mixing calls with other hands; calling is defensible but not ideal.

Note: Calling the shove with trips that blocks K-high straights is a bit too loose; solver prefers folding this combo and mixing calls with other hands.

Key Concepts

  • Protection Priority
  • Hero Strong Advantage
  • OOP
  • Semi-Wet Board
  • LEAN TOWARD CHECK