Flop Analysis
Flop Jc-9s-2c, we check our range and BTN fires 5 into 10.5. With top pair and a strong kicker on a semi-wet board, we’re getting 3.1:1 and need only about 24% equity—this hand has far more than that, so calling is mandatory.
Defend pre, check-call flop with top pair, then fold turn versus a polarized, large barrel on a paired board where BTN still has plenty of better Jx/9x.
Flop Jc-9s-2c, we check our range and BTN fires 5 into 10.5. With top pair and a strong kicker on a semi-wet board, we’re getting 3.1:1 and need only about 24% equity—this hand has far more than that, so calling is mandatory.
Turn 2d pairs the board, SPR is now around 4.4. BTN’s large barrel (25 into 20.5) after a small flop c-bet is polarized toward strong value and big draws. Our hand is now two pair, but BTN still has plenty of Jx and 9x that beat us, and we don’t block many of those. With ~35.5% required and our equity likely lower, folding is reasonable.
Turn 2d pairs the board, SPR is now around 4.4. BTN’s large barrel (25 into 20.5) after a small flop c-bet is polarized toward strong value and big draws. Our hand is now two pair, but BTN still has plenty of Jx and 9x that beat us, and we don’t block many of those. With ~35.5% required and our equity likely lower, folding is reasonable.