77 CO on 322fd: Overpair, Pot Odds, Fold
- Hero
- 7♦7♠
- Position
- CO vs HJ
- Pot
- Single-Raised Pot
- Flop
- 2♥ 3♥ 2♦
Flatting 77 pre is standard; calling flop and turn is correct, but folding river versus the shove is a mistake—our overpair has enough equity versus HJ’s value-heavy range.
Flop Analysis
Flop 2h-3h-2d: HJ fires 2BB into 7.5BB, giving us ~3.8:1 and needing ~21% equity. With an overpair and no heart, we’re well ahead of HJ’s c-betting range and have strong blockers to his bluffs, so calling is mandatory. Solver also prefers calling here with 77, with only a small raise frequency as a mix.
Turn Analysis
Turn 6s is a brick for both ranges; HJ’s 7BB bet into 16.5BB gives us ~2.4:1 and we need ~30% equity. With an overpair and no heart, we’re still well ahead of HJ’s range and have strong blockers to his bluffs, so calling is preferred. Solver also leans toward calling here with 77, with only a small raise frequency as a mix.
River Analysis
River Ac is a big card that shifts HJ’s range toward strong Ax and some bluffs; after betting flop and turn, HJ is now effectively all-in. Pot is 45.8BB and HJ bets 22.3BB, so we’re getting ~2.1:1 and need ~33% equity. Solver prefers calling here with 77, as HJ’s range is heavily weighted toward value and we’re often ahead of bluffs. Folding here gives up too much equity versus a range that is not as value-heavy as we think.
Note: River fold versus shove is too tight; solver prefers calling with 77 here, as we’re often ahead of bluffs and HJ’s range is not as value-heavy as we think.
Key Concepts
- Protection Priority
- Neutral Range
- IP
- Wet Board
- 3.8:1 NEED:21.1%