KQs BB on QT9r: Top Pair, Good Price

Hero
Q♣K♣
Position
BB vs SB
Pot
Limp-Raise Pot
Flop
Q♥ 9♦ T♠

With top pair and a gutshot facing a small turn bet and getting 3:1, we should continue rather than folding.

Flop Analysis

Three-way on Qh9dTs, SB fires 4BB into 10.5BB. This texture is very connected and favors SB’s iso range, but we have top pair with a gutshot and strong kicker. We’re getting about 2.6:1 and need roughly 28% equity, so calling is standard. Solver mixes call and raise here; raising is a reasonable option to pressure Tx/9x and some draws, but calling is the more conservative and still very profitable line.

Turn Analysis

Turn Ad is a big card for SB’s range—more Ax than we have—and the pot is already large relative to stacks. SB bets 7BB into 21.5BB, giving us about 3:1 and requiring ~25% equity. Solver prefers a mix of call and raise with this combo; folding is too tight given the price and our equity. We still have top pair and a gutshot, and SB can have plenty of Tx/9x, weaker Qx, and missed draws that will continue on many rivers. Calling or raising as a semi-bluff both perform well; folding gives up too much equity.

Note: Folding to the turn bet is too tight; with top pair and a gutshot getting 3:1, we should continue rather than folding.

Key Concepts

  • Protection Priority
  • Villain Strong Advantage
  • IP
  • Wet Board
  • 2.6:1 NEED:27.6%