AQs HJ on Q83fd: AQs: Trip The Board
- Hero
- A♦Q♦
- Position
- HJ vs SB
- Pot
- 3-Bet Pot
- Flop
- 8♦ Q♠ 3♠
Open AQs, flat the SB 3-bet, call flop, then shove turn with trips on a paired board—river shove is value.
Flop Analysis
Flop Q83 with two spades: SB c-bets 7.9 into 31.4, giving us about 4:1 and needing only ~20% equity. With top pair, strong kicker, and a backdoor flush draw, we have ~77% equity vs SB’s c-bet range, so calling is standard. Solver prefers call over raise here.
Note: Raising flop instead of calling with top pair and a backdoor flush draw is slightly lower EV; solver prefers call with this combo.
Turn Analysis
Turn Qh pairs the board and we now have trips with a strong kicker. With SPR ~0.85, SB’s range is polarized and we’re ahead of most of it. Solver mixes between checking and shoving here, but jamming is very reasonable and slightly higher EV than checking.
River Analysis
River 9h doesn’t change much; after SB calls turn, their range is heavily weighted to Qx and strong spades. Shoving river is effectively value and we’re not really bluffing here.
Key Concepts
- Protection Priority
- Villain Strong Advantage
- IP
- Semi-Wet Board
- 4.0:1 NEED:20.2%