AJo CO on A84fd: Top Pair, Shallow Stack
- Hero
- J♠A♥
- Position
- CO vs BB
- Pot
- 3-Bet Pot
- Flop
- A♣ 8♦ 4♦
With top pair and a strong kicker on a low-SPR board, jamming the river is the best way to extract value from worse Ax and bluff-catchers.
Flop Analysis
Flop Ac8d4d gives us top pair with a strong kicker on a semi-wet board; BB has the nut advantage but we still have top pair and a very low SPR, so calling the small c-bet is mandatory. Solver prefers a mix of small bets and checks on this texture, but calling is the only reasonable option here.
Turn Analysis
Turn 7d brings in the third diamond; after BB checks, we should lean on a small value/protection bet with top pair. Solver likes a ~25% pot bet here, so our 10bb into ~44bb is slightly larger than ideal but still reasonable.
Note: Turn sizing is a bit too big; a ~25% pot bet is preferred for value and protection.
River Analysis
River 3h bricks the flush and leaves us with top pair and a very strong kicker; with SPR ~0.6 and a pot of ~64BB, jamming our remaining stack is the highest-EV way to extract value from worse Ax and bluff-catchers.
Key Concepts
- Committed
- Villain Strong Advantage
- IP
- Semi-Wet Board
- 4.3:1 NEED:19%