AJo CO on A84fd: Top Pair, Shallow Stack

Hero
J♠A♥
Position
CO vs BB
Pot
3-Bet Pot
Flop
A♣ 8♦ 4♦

With top pair and a strong kicker on a low-SPR board, jamming the river is the best way to extract value from worse Ax and bluff-catchers.

Flop Analysis

Flop Ac8d4d gives us top pair with a strong kicker on a semi-wet board; BB has the nut advantage but we still have top pair and a very low SPR, so calling the small c-bet is mandatory. Solver prefers a mix of small bets and checks on this texture, but calling is the only reasonable option here.

Turn Analysis

Turn 7d brings in the third diamond; after BB checks, we should lean on a small value/protection bet with top pair. Solver likes a ~25% pot bet here, so our 10bb into ~44bb is slightly larger than ideal but still reasonable.

Note: Turn sizing is a bit too big; a ~25% pot bet is preferred for value and protection.

River Analysis

River 3h bricks the flush and leaves us with top pair and a very strong kicker; with SPR ~0.6 and a pot of ~64BB, jamming our remaining stack is the highest-EV way to extract value from worse Ax and bluff-catchers.

Key Concepts

  • Committed
  • Villain Strong Advantage
  • IP
  • Semi-Wet Board
  • 4.3:1 NEED:19%