AJo HJ on A84fd: Top Pair, Stack Off

Hero
J♠A♥
Position
HJ vs BB
Pot
3-Bet Pot
Flop
A♣ 8♦ 4♦

With top pair on the river and a very shallow SPR, ripping it in is the best way to get paid by worse Ax and bluff-catchers.

Flop Analysis

Flop Ac8d4d, pot ≈33.9bb, BB bets 8.4bb into us. We have top pair with a strong kicker and are getting about 4:1, needing only ~20% equity; calling is mandatory. Solver prefers mostly calling with some small raise mixing, so taking the call is the standard, high-EV line.

Turn Analysis

Turn 7d brings the third diamond and SPR is about 1.2. Solver slightly prefers checking with top pair here, but a small bet like 10bb into 42.3bb is a reasonable thin value/protection bet. We’re targeting worse Ax and charging the remaining diamond draws while still keeping our line somewhat balanced.

River Analysis

River 3h bricks the flush and our hand is still top pair with a strong kicker. With SPR ≈0.7 and a pot of 62.3bb, jamming our stack is the highest-EV way to extract value from worse Ax and bluff-catchers. Solver lines up with this shove, and the sizing is ideal given the pot and stack sizes.

Key Concepts

  • Committed
  • Villain Slight Advantage
  • IP
  • Semi-Wet Board
  • 4.0:1 NEED:19.9%