A6o SB on K74r: River Ac6d: Small Bluff

Hero
A♣6♦
Position
SB vs BU
Pot
Limp-Raise Pot
Flop
K♥ 7♦ 4♣

River: Ac6d is a reasonable bluff candidate; use a small 33% pot bet, mixing in some checks, and avoid overbetting.

Flop Analysis

Flop K74r, SPR ~13. Solver prefers checking this combo on this texture, with some small bets mixed in. Our A6o has no pair, no draw, and no relevant blockers, so checking and taking the free card is the highest-EV line.

Turn Analysis

Turn 2c, pot 7.5BB, we bet 1.5BB on the flop and BU calls. Solver still leans toward checking a lot here, but when we do bet, it prefers either a small 33% stab or a big overbet. Our 4.5BB bet is in the middle and doesn’t fit neatly into either strategy; checking or using a small or large size would be more efficient.

River Analysis

River 9c, pot 19.5BB, SPR ~4.7. We now have a missed club draw and a weak ace blocker. Solver likes a small 33% pot bet here with Ac6d, mixing in some checks. The small bet targets Kx/7x/4x and random floats that don’t have a club, while the check protects our checking range. Overbetting is lower EV and should be reserved for stronger blockers.

Key Concepts

  • 12.9
  • Hero Slight Advantage
  • OOP
  • Dry Board
  • LEAN TOWARD CHECK