AKs CO on K92r: AKs: Raise, Then Chill
- Hero
- A♥K♥
- Position
- CO vs BB
- Pot
- 3-Bet Pot
- Flop
- K♦ 9♣ 2♠
Open AKs, 4-bet pre, call flop, check turn, and river call is reasonable but slightly -EV versus a tight, polarized shove.
Flop Analysis
Flop Kd9c2s, we have top pair top kicker with SPR ~2.5; facing a small c-bet, calling is preferred with this combo, as we’re ahead of a lot of bluffs and medium-strength hands and don’t want to blow up the pot with a marginal value hand.
Note: Raising the flop with AKs on this dry board is unnecessary; calling keeps the pot smaller and lets BB continue with worse hands and bluffs.
Turn Analysis
Turn 7h, SPR ≈0.7, BB checks; with top pair and no draw, checking back is reasonable—betting would mostly get action from better hands and fold out worse.
River Analysis
River 4c, pot ≈137.5bb, BB shoves 57bb into 80.5bb, leaving 1bb behind. We’re getting about 2.4:1 and need ~29% equity; AKs has roughly that versus a range that includes missed draws, bluffs, and some value. Solver leans toward folding AKs here, but the pot-odds call is defensible.
Note: Calling the river shove with AKs is marginal; solver prefers folding here, but the pot odds make it tempting.
Key Concepts
- Protection Priority
- Villain Slight Advantage
- IP
- Dry Board
- 4.1:1 NEED:19.8%