73o BU on A52fd: Deep-Stack Wheel Value

Hero
3♠7♣
Position
BU vs BB
Pot
Single-Raised Pot
Flop
5♣ A♠ 2♣

Open tighter pre, check flop is fine, turn call is marginal, and river raise is good but slightly undersized.

Flop Analysis

Flop A52cc, pot ≈14.5bb, SPR ≈20. We have a small range advantage and some backdoor potential, so mixing between small c-bets and checks is reasonable; checking is fine. Solver leans toward a small c-bet or medium c-bet, but checking keeps our range protected and avoids over-bluffing on a board that favors our range.

Turn Analysis

Turn Qs is a very good card for our range and puts a third spade out there. BB leads 13.2 into 14.5, giving us about 2.1bb:1 and needing ~32% equity. Solver prefers folding this combo versus a turn lead, but calling is defensible given the price and the fact that we still have some backdoor potential and can bluff-catch on some rivers.

River Analysis

River 4d completes the wheel; after BB bets 38.2 into 79.2, we have a strong value hand with 3-7. Solver prefers a large raise (≈110–210bb) or calling; our 138bb raise is slightly smaller than ideal but still prints versus worse hands and bluffs. The raise size is fine, but slightly bigger captures more value from worse straights and strong one-pair hands.

Key Concepts

  • Multi-Street Play
  • Hero Slight Advantage
  • IP
  • Semi-Wet Board
  • LEAN TOWARD CHECK