93o SB on T86fd: Deep-Stack Bluff Missed
- Hero
- 3♥9♠
- Position
- SB vs BB
- Pot
- Single-Raised Pot
- Flop
- T♦ 6♦ 8♥
Open 93o too loose, check flop and turn call is fine, but turn raise is a low-EV bluff and river should usually be a big bluff.
Flop Analysis
Flop Td6d8h is very connected and BB has a slight range advantage. With 93o we have only a gutshot and no real showdown value, so checking is the standard line. Solver leans heavily toward checking here and only mixes in a medium c-bet with some hands; our hand is not strong enough to be part of that betting range.
Turn Analysis
Turn Ah, BB leads 7.6 into 16.1; we’re getting about 2.1:1 and need roughly 32% equity. Our gutshot plus some overcard equity is enough to justify a call. Raising to 18.9BB mostly folds out worse and gets called by stronger hands, so it’s a low-EV bluff with this combo.
Note: Turn raise with a gutshot is a low-EV bluff; calling is higher EV.
River Analysis
River Qc, after we raise turn and BB calls, we arrive with a very shallow SPR and a hand that’s now pure air. Solver prefers a large bluff here, but checking back is defensible given the awkwardness of the line—our turn raise already polarized us, so betting again may not fold out many better hands.
Note: River should usually be a big bluff; checking back is defensible but slightly lower EV.
Key Concepts
- 9.5
- Villain Slight Advantage
- IP
- Wet Board
- LEAN TOWARD CHECK