93o SB on T86fd: Deep-Stack Bluff Missed

Hero
3♥9♠
Position
SB vs BB
Pot
Single-Raised Pot
Flop
T♦ 6♦ 8♥

Open 93o too loose, check flop and turn call is fine, but turn raise is a low-EV bluff and river should usually be a big bluff.

Flop Analysis

Flop Td6d8h is very connected and BB has a slight range advantage. With 93o we have only a gutshot and no real showdown value, so checking is the standard line. Solver leans heavily toward checking here and only mixes in a medium c-bet with some hands; our hand is not strong enough to be part of that betting range.

Turn Analysis

Turn Ah, BB leads 7.6 into 16.1; we’re getting about 2.1:1 and need roughly 32% equity. Our gutshot plus some overcard equity is enough to justify a call. Raising to 18.9BB mostly folds out worse and gets called by stronger hands, so it’s a low-EV bluff with this combo.

Note: Turn raise with a gutshot is a low-EV bluff; calling is higher EV.

River Analysis

River Qc, after we raise turn and BB calls, we arrive with a very shallow SPR and a hand that’s now pure air. Solver prefers a large bluff here, but checking back is defensible given the awkwardness of the line—our turn raise already polarized us, so betting again may not fold out many better hands.

Note: River should usually be a big bluff; checking back is defensible but slightly lower EV.

Key Concepts

  • 9.5
  • Villain Slight Advantage
  • IP
  • Wet Board
  • LEAN TOWARD CHECK