AKs CO on K92r: AKs: Raise, Then Chill

Hero
A♥K♥
Position
CO vs BB
Pot
3-Bet Pot
Flop
K♦ 9♣ 2♠

Open AKs, mostly call the small flop bet, check turn, and comfortably call the river shove with top pair.

Flop Analysis

Flop Kd9c2s, SPR ≈2.3: BB has a slight range advantage but we still hold top pair top kicker with excellent equity vs range. Solver prefers calling the small flop bet with AKs most of the time and mixing in a large raise only occasionally; raising to 30BB is a bit too big and polarizes us.

Note: Flop raise sizing is unnecessarily large; solver prefers mostly calling with AKs here, with only a small mix of large raises.

Turn Analysis

Turn 7h, SPR ≈0.5: after we raise flop and get called, our range is strong and BB’s range is capped; checking back AK is reasonable and keeps our line somewhat balanced.

River Analysis

River 4c, pot ≈143.5BB, BB bets 49BB: we’re getting about 2.9:1 and need ~25.5% equity. AK is still top pair and BB’s range is heavily weighted to bluffs, so calling is standard.

Key Concepts

  • Protection Priority
  • Villain Slight Advantage
  • IP
  • Dry Board
  • 3.5:1 NEED:22.5%