AKs CO on K92r: AK vs 3-Bet

Hero
A♥K♥
Position
CO
Pot
3-Bet Pot
Flop
K♠ 9♦ 2♣

AK plays well as a flat vs a 3-bet, but once we flop top pair we should mostly call the flop c-bet and then lean on betting the turn; river shove is fine as a call.

Flop Analysis

K92r is a great flop for us—top pair with strong kicker. Facing a 10BB c-bet into 34.5BB, we’re getting about 3.5:1 and need ~22% equity; AKKx has plenty. Solver prefers calling here and only occasionally raising large; our 30BB raise is a bit too ambitious and isolates us versus stronger Kx and sets.

Note: Flop raise is too big and too frequent; calling the c-bet with AKKx is higher EV and keeps our range more protected.

Turn Analysis

Turn 7h is a brick and BB checks. With SPR ~1.6 and top pair, we’re in a good spot to bet for value and protection. Solver mixes between betting and checking, but betting around half-pot is preferred to extract from worse Kx and 9x while still keeping our range balanced.

Note: Checking turn gives up a profitable value/protection bet with top pair; a half-pot bet is preferred.

River Analysis

River 4d bricks the board and BB now shoves 57BB into ~143.5BB. With AKKx we have a very strong showdown hand and are getting about 2.9:1, needing only ~25% equity. Calling is standard and preferred—jamming would be overplaying our hand and folding out worse Kx and bluffs.

Key Concepts

  • Protection Priority
  • Villain Strong Advantage
  • IP
  • Dry Board
  • 3.5:1 NEED:22.5%