Flop Analysis
Flop Ac9c7s, multiway and very draw-heavy. Our 98o has no pair, no club, and only a weak gutshot, so leading would be ambitious. Checking and letting the limpers drive the action is the best way to realize our equity.
Multiway we should mostly check flop and turn, especially with weak draws; river shove is the right idea but sizing is off.
Flop Ac9c7s, multiway and very draw-heavy. Our 98o has no pair, no club, and only a weak gutshot, so leading would be ambitious. Checking and letting the limpers drive the action is the best way to realize our equity.
Turn Ts gives us an OESD and the board is still very dynamic. Solver likes a small probe or check here, but a larger lead is defensible as a semi-bluff. The key is to be prepared to fold versus a raise.
CO raises to 16BB over our 7BB lead. With an OESD and a 3BB pot, we’re getting about 1.6:1 and need ~38% equity; our draw has roughly that, so continuing is fine. The error is not folding versus the raise; this combo should mostly fold.
Note: Calling the turn raise with only an OESD and no club is too loose; this combo should fold most of the time.
River Qs completes the front-door flush and we miss. After CO folds to our turn bet, their range is capped and we can credibly represent a flush. Solver prefers a big polarized bet here, but the 50BB sizing is too small—pot or a bit over is better.
Note: River shove sizing is too small; pot or slightly overbet is preferred to maximize fold equity and value.